Category: Living in Society

I’m picking Democrats in the June 5 primary election.

My main political goal before early voting begins May 7 is to door knock my precinct until I make contact with everyone who might vote. It’s a tricky business this cycle.

Not only is there a six-way contest for the gubernatorial nomination, the secretary of state nomination is contested. Our state senate district has four primary candidates and the board of supervisors has three candidates for two positions. With one exception, former Iowa Democratic Party chair Andy McGuire, I like them all.

From the perspective of knocking a neighbor’s door, no one size fits all, and that changes my role to one of telling/reminding people there is a primary election and encouraging them to use voting as a way to ease the frustrations of living in Iowa in a time of Republican power. I believe it will go well since my canvass targets are mostly registered Democrats.

I’m making my own contact list and crafting my own message, as my picks are unlikely to be everyone’s picks. I won’t be parroting campaign slogans or policy points during my canvass. Outside of a couple of candidates providing their campaign literature, the message will be my own. It can become muddled if I’m not careful. The main interest is to foster good feelings and relationships among Democrats while hopefully nominating some of my candidates in the primary. I don’t know how it’s going to go, but this home-made canvass should be fun.

I support John Norris for governor. He has the breadth and depth of experience needed to guide the state through recovery from the disaster governance of Terry Branstad and Kim Reynolds. It’s going to take multiple election cycles to recover and Norris acknowledges this and has a plan to do it. Second, his policies are aligned closely with Democratic values. However, this election is less about policy and more about leadership. Norris is ready to lead.

There is an unspoken criticism that Norris is part of the old guard of Democratic governance. I view that as a positive. He understands Democrats need to win more than Johnson County and other urban areas to win the gubernatorial general election. He has been around long enough to know how it can be done. By any standard, he has been a political insider at the highest level, with his spouse, Jackie Norris, serving as Michelle Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and John serving in the U.S. Department of Agriculture under President Obama. Some view political insiders as “establishment” politicians, but that description is 1). untrue, and 2). if it were true, more asset than liability in 2018.

Perhaps adding to his primary campaign’s challenges, Norris is focusing attention on rural Iowans. While primary votes may be in more urban areas, Republican strength includes small towns and rural Iowa. Norris has a plan to make Democrats competitive there again. It’s a plan I believe and hope will work in the primary.

I support Deidre DeJear for secretary of state. While Jim Mowrer ran unsuccessfully for congress in both the third and fourth districts in recent election cycles, there is nothing to indicate anything has changed for him in a statewide race. DeJear would bring a fresh perspective and needed Democratic views regarding inclusion in voting.

I support Zach Wahls for state senate district 37. Wahls is working harder than any of the three other candidates for state senate. He is also doing the right kind of work, which during a primary election is making voter contact. If he works that hard to get elected, he will work for constituents in the legislature. From observing how he’s conducted his campaign, he’s leaving no Democrat behind and that’s what the district needs in their representative in the Iowa Senate.

I support Janelle Rettig and Mike Carberry for county supervisor. This pick was the hardest because many of my friends are picking Pat Heiden, with some bullet voting. I profiled all three candidates here, here and here. I know all three candidates better than many politicians and believe any two of them will serve the interests of voters. We have to choose.

There was never a question I would support Janelle Rettig. Some characterize her as argumentative. She does her own research from a distinct viewpoint and maintains an independent voice on the board. She is not afraid to argue for what she believes is the right course for the county. I respect and value those qualities in her and on the board, even when I disagree with her.

I came around to supporting Mike Carberry again. As I explained to another candidate’s campaign manager, Mike and I have a long relationship, I helped him get elected to his first term, and as a voice for environmental issues he is closely aligned with mine. I explained part of this history here. Why did I hesitate? There were multiple stories from credible sources complaining about Carberry. Most notable of these was at the county Planning and Zoning Commission’s April 9 public meeting during a discussion of the County Comprehensive Plan. While unconventional, and sometimes wrong on positions he has taken, he is not afraid to argue for what he believes it the right course for the county. The board of supervisors has been better with Carberry as a member and that is why I’m voting for him.

How does one parse these picks while door knocking Democrats without getting people mad? There is enough unbelievably bad stuff going on with Republican governance that any freckles on Democrats won’t matter one bit in the general election.

The winner of the June 5 Democratic gubernatorial primary will face Governor Kim Reynolds in the Nov. 6 general election. A popular Democratic view is expressed in the following email received from a neighbor who is usually politically quiet:

I want to encourage everyone to vote since turnout is usually pretty low in primary elections. I also want to encourage you, to encourage your friends and peers to vote.

In regard to the gubernatorial election, there are six candidates on the Democratic side. In my opinion, based on the polls, only two of the candidates have any real chance of getting the 35 percent needed to win the primary. If no candidate gets 35 percent, the selection of the candidate will be made at the Democratic convention. I personally would not like this to happen since one never knows who might come out of the convention (horse trading of support).

In my opinion, it is critical for Iowa to elect a Democratic Governor to balance the Republican Senate and House majorities. (I certainly would also love to see the Democrats take back at least the House or Senate also). You may not agree with my opinion, and that is just fine.

The two Democratic candidates who appear to have the only chance of getting 35 percent are Nate Boulton and Fred Hubbell. I could live with either individual. Nate is a state senator and attorney. He is quite a bit younger than Fred Hubbell — so I think he appeals to the more far end of the liberal wing of the party. Fred Hubbell has had a very successful career with Younkers and an insurance company but he has a very strong record as a progressive leader also. In my opinion, this comes down to the candidate who has the best chance of winning the general election. I think Iowa has been trending a bit more Republican on a statewide basis. I thus think that Fred Hubbell might have a better chance of winning the general election. I have spoken with several state legislators who I trust, and they are supporting Fred Hubbell. So, I will be voting for Mr. Hubbell. (There are also many legislators supporting Nate Boulton).

Is this where the Iowa electorate is regarding the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Probably. It’s nothing against the other four candidates, Cathy Glasson, John Norris, Ross Wilburn and Andy McGuire. This view is consistent with the primary electorates that gave us Chet Culver in 2006, and Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Iowa caucus.

Some things are worth noting here.

First, encouraging primary turnout is de rigueur this cycle. More and more people like my neighbor recognize it. In the shit storm 2017 and 2018 have been, voters are engaged in politics as they haven’t been since the 2006 reaction to George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election. That’s a hopeful situation for Democrats.

What about Cathy Glasson? Couldn’t she get 35 percent? Based on conversations with dozens of primary voters, the answer is no. There is too much push back on her statewide campaign. Popular opinion is she can’t win against Reynolds because her support is too Johnson County and out of state union-money centered. Voters don’t see her as able to win people in the rural expanses of Iowa and that’s important this cycle. Glasson has framed a set of progressive issues but those issues are less important among primary voters to whom I’ve spoken.

What about my guy, John Norris? I see a possibility but primary voters do not. I continue to believe Norris would perform better as governor than the others if elected. While I volunteered to work on the Norris campaign, I have yet to be contacted for a specific request. I plan to door knock before the primary for Norris and my slate of candidates, but that is all I see going on other than frequent campaign stump stops everywhere in the state.

It would be best for the Democrat to win the primary outright. I was elected as a delegate to the state convention and if the gubernatorial choice went to convention I’d do my best work to help pick a winner. The downside is whoever that would be will be tainted because of the lack of primary votes. Going to the convention to pick a winner has no upside for Iowa Democrats.

Take back the house and senate? Sure, we’d like to and with good Democratic turnout in the primary and general elections winning a majority in the House is possible with 95 of 100 races being contested. The senate? That will be a 2020 objective.

My neighbor’s email was a back door, rational, Iowa nice way of endorsing Fred Hubbell. Our precinct is more like the rest of Iowa in a number of ways, including being less liberal than the urban centers of Iowa City, Coralville and North Liberty. I don’t see the appeal of Hubbell based on reading his numerous mailings and listening to his speeches. However, as a compromise candidate, I’d support him and most primary voters to whom I’ve spoken would.

The focus this cycle has to be on defeating Kim Reynolds. Party unity on that idea exists, and will be needed in November.

Politics embraces the idea elected officials have term limits and the electorate gets a chance to accept or reject what they have done in office. That’s basic, and not saying much if it’s all we have.

I managed to avoid retirement life by attending political events yesterday. Countless conversations and eight hours invested by the time I got home, I’m not sure I’m any wiser.

When State Senator Bob Dvorsky announced his retirement he did it long enough in advance for a field of potential Democratic successors to file for election to replace him. We saw them together for the first time yesterday afternoon.

At the Senate District 37 candidate forum in Coralville, Eric Dirth, Imad Youssif, Zach Wahls and Janice Weiner created a dialogue that was informative and wide-ranging. As usual, the Johnson County Task Force on Aging arranged an event that enabled candidates to showcase their positions, personality and public speaking ability. All four candidates demonstrated a reasonable command of the issues in this race. There will be at least two more forums before the June 5 primary election. I’m voting for Wahls.

Three Democrats are vying for two seats on the Johnson County board of supervisors. Mike Carberry, Pat Heiden and Janelle Rettig filed nominating papers and will be on the ballot. When I dropped off some extra garden seeds to my friend John Deeth at the auditor’s office yesterday, he said early voting begins Monday, May 7.

One of my picks in the county supervisor race is incumbent Janelle Rettig who I got to know when she first ran eight years ago. She has a pistol of a personality and a bullet-point approach to her life as a politician. She’s been known to take aim at injustice in the county. As a journeyman datahead, I appreciate that and have supported her since the beginning.

I’ve known Mike Carberry longer through our mutual association with Iowa Physicians for Social Responsibility. We got to know each other in our work to stop coal-fired power plants in Waterloo and Marshalltown, and then worked together when MidAmerican Energy proposed a bill in the Iowa Legislature to have legislators approve a process for a new nuclear power plant. We were successful in stemming the tide on those bad ideas. I haven’t given Mike the nod at this time and am in no hurry to decide my second primary vote.

Supervisor candidate Pat Heiden has not previously served in public office. I’ve known her only since she retired from her career at Oaknoll Retirement Residence where she was executive director for 21 years. She’s positive and talented. What I noticed about her at most events we both attended is she is continuously meeting people, handing out business cards, and talking about issues. She seems a natural politician. I haven’t given her the nod either.

Since the filing period for the supervisor election closed, I’ve discussed the race with numerous Democratic primary voters. It’s surprising to me how much dissatisfaction there is with the current board. Most with whom I spoke were voting for Pat Heiden, many bullet voting. I’ve had my nose to the grindstone and haven’t been paying the supervisors much attention. What happened?

There have long been people I know who don’t think much of what the county supervisors are doing. The dissatisfaction I’m hearing now is different from that and more widespread. The reason I gave hours of my life to a county Planning and Zoning Commission meeting last night was in an effort to understand what’s going on. I’m not there yet, but from that meeting, and my conversations with voters, the supervisors appear to have a wicked problem. It’s called process. Boring? Yes. Voters don’t pay much attention to process unless it spills over into their lives, and that’s what appears to be happening and in turn driving negativity.

There’s more to do to understand this, and I expect another post, maybe two, once I’ve spent more time on it.

For now, I’m going to finish a shift at my desk and get outside to begin garden preparation a couple hours after daylight. I’m also going to quit reading the book Unbelievable by Katy Tur. It reads like eating political cotton candy and I’m pretty sure it’s not good for me. It’s been another day in the life of a recovering political junkie.

I volunteered to be the “data guy” for a local political campaign this year.

Being a datahead, data guy is a reasonable fit, although I prefer the usage “datahead” to “data guy.” Whatever they want to call me will do.

“Datahead” refers to a person who is well versed in general knowledge. What we dataheads know is data is dead if it becomes disconnected from a living society. For example, in politics people often compare the number of registered Republican voters in a district to the number of registered Democratic voters and make an argument based on “data.” Often forgotten in such analyses is that no preference voters, like those in the district on which I am working, have more voter registrations than either party-specific voter group. People are weary and suspicious of politics and no preference voters include mostly recovering Democratic and Republican voters. Think of it as the voter version of Alcoholics Anonymous: Voters Anonymous. I’m not quick to draw conclusions based on voter registrations, despite what such data may indicate in a spreadsheet or computer application.

After arrival at Fort Jackson, S.C. for U.S. Army basic training I was assigned to a barracks on Tank Hill. On weekends we hung out at the barracks. I would read Chaucer in my upper bunk while a group of fellow soldiers played whist on the lower bunk. They called me “professor,” and I liked the appellation. Sometimes people call me “professor” today but I am no longer the sharpest knife in the drawer, so I’m not sure the usage is warranted. I know a few things but have forgotten as much as I know. I enjoyed hanging out with those Alabama National Guardsmen.

In a political campaign people have specific questions and want answers. My experience often comes into play. In part, I serve as technician, collecting and analyzing data and experiences… suggesting which voters to contact, which strategies and tactics to pursue. I’m also an advisor using life experience to influence the direction of a campaign while answering questions. I’m a journeyman datahead, helping where I can but always deferring to others in decision making. I enjoy hanging out with people working on our campaign.

Much has been made of the data-driven campaign beginning with Howard Dean and Joe Trippi in the run up to the 2004 election. There is no political substitute for meeting voters, especially at their home, and ferreting out what they believe and feel about the needs of the body politic. Campaigns will always need workers to do the tedious, repetitive work of voter contact. Lesson learned: wearing orange hats while canvassing voters, as out of state Deaniacs did, is not recommended.

I’m glad there continues to be a role in politics for journeyman dataheads like me. It’s a chance to make a positive contribution as we pass the baton to the next generation.