Author: Paul Deaton

The Associated Press released a summary of the Iowa primary races over the Memorial Day weekend and tomorrow the voting will end, framing the summer and fall campaign. Going into election day, here is what to watch for:

The front window race is for U.S. Senate, between Rep. Bruce Braley and whoever emerges from the field of five Republicans. State Senator Joni Ernst of Red Oak is leading former business executive Mark Jacobs in the polls. Both of them are ahead of the remainder of a field that includes Sam Clovis of Sioux City, Mark Whitaker of Ankeny and Scott Schaben of Ames.

“My opponents will be tripping over themselves to see who can come up with the most extreme ideas to get their base riled up,” said Braley in a recent statement. “Iowa could very well determine control of the Senate this year. We are the force that could stop extreme Republicans from taking over.”

Considering the Iowa electorate and our relatively close margins in recent presidential years, an Ernst nominee from the Republicans would be better for Braley’s campaign because of the need to appeal to voters in the middle of the political spectrum. Ernst would polarize, Braley would draw from the middle. As Braley’s recent television commercial indicates, his appeal is to the middle.

It is not clear any Republican Senate candidate could garner the required 35 percent to win the nomination during the primary. For those with the stomach for it, the Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall discusses this Republican issue here. Blog for Iowa will cover Braley’s race closely.

Here is a breakdown of the other primary races for federal office:

First Congressional District:

Democrats: Swati Dandekar of Cedar Rapids, Anesa Kajtazovic of Waterloo, Pat Murphy of Dubuque, Dave O’Brien of Cedar Rapids and Monica Vernon, also of Cedar Rapids. Blog for Iowa believes Swati Dandekar belongs in the Republican primary due to her close ties with conservative business interests. This is not a new opinion.

“Dubuque businessman Ron Blum leads a Republican field that includes Cedar Rapids businessman Steve Rathje, who has run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate and House, and Marshalltown lawyer Gail Boliver,” according to the Associated Press.

Second Congressional District:

Democrat Dave Loebsack will face the winner of a Republican field that includes Mark Lofgren, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Matthew Waldren. Miller-Meeks seems convinced she will win. A MMM primary win would be welcomed by Team Loebsack because there is nothing new to see there, except ferreting out the extend of her involvement in the settlement scandal.

Third Congressional District:

Former Democratic State Senator Stacey Appel of Ackworth will face the winner of a Republican field that includes six candidates: Bob Cramer, Joe Grandanette, Monte Shaw, Matt Schultz, David Young, and Brad Zaun. The Republican nomination seems unlikely to be decided tomorrow, and may go to convention.

Fourth Congressional District:

Democrat Jim Mowrer will face incumbent Steve King in the general election, as both are unopposed in the primary.

Please click on the follow button to stay updated on Blog for Iowa’s for continued coverage of the 2014 midterm elections in Iowa.

~ Written for Blog for Iowa

LAKE MACBRIDE—A friend wrote a letter to the editor politely asking us to boycott the May 26 and 27 appearance of elephants in the Shrine Circus at the county fairgrounds. It was a brief letter, reflective of her ongoing concern with the treatment of animals. Here it is in its entirety:

Wild animals do not belong in the circus.
I was disappointed to learn that a circus that uses elephants and other wild animals is coming to Johnson County. Please do not support this circus. The only way wild animals can be trained and controlled is through abuse and intimidation. They lead miserable lives so some people can be “entertained” and others can benefit economically.
To learn more about elephants, please watch the documentary “An Apology to Elephants.” It is available at local libraries.

Last night a colleague from Washington, D.C. called to discuss a program on which we are working. Basically, I am running behind schedule on my part and he was giving me a nudge. As circuses were already on my mind, the conversation turned to the Iowa caucuses.

All kinds of people will come out of the woodwork to Iowa to advocate for their issues in hope of influencing the 2016 presidential election. Some parts of what they say are worth hearing, and outsiders like my friend are fascinated with caucus chat. I told him about billionaire Tom Steyer’s hiring a friend of mine to work on the caucuses, about U.S. Chamber President Tom Donohue’s Iowa connections, and recent activity of the Heritage Foundation in Cedar Rapids. The spell was cast and I escaped close scrutiny on my tardiness.

A broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, and likewise I find myself agreeing with Republicans from time to time. It was regarding skepticism about the merits of capitalism spoken on the campaign trail in New Hampshire.

Yesterday, Arnie Alpert, a program coordinator for American Friends Service Committee in New Hampshire, posted about the visits of Senator Mike Lee of Utah and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, where the wingers spoke about the problems with cronyism. The gist of it is that small businesses can’t compete against large corporations and their crony capitalism.

“As the Presidential campaign heats up, alongside a growing movement of citizens concerned about the floods of corporate cash washing through the election system, it will be interesting to see whether populist attacks on Big Business find a secure home in the GOP,” wrote Alpert. Who knows? Might happen, but I doubt it.

In Iowa our caucuses are much like a circus replete with rings of advocacy and a clown car of candidates. It seems unlikely Republicans will bring the caliber of performance they did in 2012, since with Obama subject to term limits, it is an open race, and much of the electorate is wising up to the need for common sense. Plus, faves Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin may stop by, but are unlikely to be major players this cycle.

As far as the Democratic side goes, there will be dalliances with Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb and others, but the fundamental question is whether Joe Biden will run a third time, or Hillary Clinton a second.

Thing is, there are expected to be plenty of candidates, especially on the Republican side, and they are not elephants, so my friend’s admonition need not apply.

LAKE MACBRIDE— Honey locust trees are in bloom around the lake country. It is another step in the steady march through the calendar of our awareness. We expect the blooms now, and so they have come.

The newspaper in the county seat announced their endorsements for the statehouse primary elections and picked Dennis Boedeker in Iowa House District 73. I stopped by our local newspaper yesterday, and they are running my candidate comparison articles side-by-side this week. We don’t endorse, but there are clear differences between the two Democratic candidates. Boedeker was recruited by political insiders to run for office, whereas his primary opponent David Johnson is self-activated, making his fourth attempt to win a seat in the Iowa legislature. I have no clue who will win the primary, and don’t care to speculate. From talking to locals, there have been no indications that Johnson’s time has come, and that’s no endorsement.

The Republican incumbent Bobby Kaufmann read Sullivan Ballou’s letter at the legion’s Memorial Day observance. We had a brief chat after the ceremony, before the crowd headed to the legion hall for coffee and kolaches. Kaufmann has been a constant presence in the district if the two Democratic contenders have not.

Rain fell around 3 a.m., beating against the house. Would that the garden were planted. Instead, rain is a hindrance to garden progress. I’ll work a shift at the CSA in the greenhouse instead and hope the ground dries out later today or tomorrow.