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Living in Society Writing

What if the Jobs Don’t Come Back?

guest-columnSince the general election I’ve been laying low, listening to people talk — in person — about the new administration and what President Donald J. Trump means to them.

It was about jobs.

Most supporters found a lot of what the president said and stands for to be objectionable, yet voted for him because of the hope for jobs — a central campaign theme. Manufacturing jobs specifically.

In his inaugural address, Trump gave a name to something with which many are familiar, “the American carnage” of globalization and its impact on U.S. manufacturing jobs.

An issue page of the White House web site the administration laid out his position:

Since the recession of 2008, American workers and businesses have suffered through the slowest economic recovery since World War II. The U.S. lost nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs during this period, while the share of Americans in the work force plummeted to lows not seen since the 1970s, the national debt doubled, and middle class got smaller. To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth.

As a deal-maker, the president asserts he knows how to do it. His plan is not yet public so it’s difficult to evaluate.

I’ve worked manufacturing jobs during my life and as a director of a logistics company that evaluated countless others. While living in Indiana I interviewed thousands of people impacted by the exodus of jobs in the rust belt as part of a global restructuring of workforce and business operations. In this sense Trump is right about the carnage: real people were negatively impacted by loss of U.S. jobs. I met many of them.

At the same time, finding cheap labor and developing new technologies enabled companies to be competitive in a global marketplace. However, Trump’s “carnage” launched with intensity because of Ronald Reagan’s policies, not Obama’s. I believe Trump’s assertion about jobs is a bait and switch.

On Friday, Jan. 27, the White House announced a “Manufacturing Jobs Initiative.” Andrew Liveris of Dow Chemical Company is convening a panel of business leaders to advise the president. For the most part, it is a who’s who of companies that benefited from globalization. I am doubtful this group can do much besides inform the president what regulations and tax codes need revision to encourage large companies to locate manufacturing plants on U.S. soil. The two token AFL-CIO members represent labor interests on the panel, but even they are part of a gigantic dog and pony show expected to accomplish little in terms of direct results impacting real people.

The metrics to evaluate Trump’s job creation performance already exist in the Labor Department jobs report which shows the millions of jobs created during the Obama administration. Assume the methodology remains constant, fill out the chart as time passes and new results are in, and there is an objective basis on which to evaluate performance. A similar metric holds true for economic growth. We should have a solid couple years in before the 2020 campaign begins. Thumbs up or thumbs down. It should be that simple.

Trump’s discussion of bringing manufacturing jobs “back” is a bait and switch. Globalization of the manufacturing processes and automation that includes robots doing repetitive tasks has eliminated many manufacturing jobs permanently. It will eliminate more.

Like it or not, with Wall Street alumni occupying four key positions in the administration, whatever jobs are created are likely to be similar to those created under Obama.

I am not hopeful for resurgence in manufacturing jobs, nor was this my issue during the 2016 campaign. However, Trump’s assertions about job creation came from the lips of every Trump voter with whom I spoke, no exceptions.

If Democrats hope to win the next presidential election we need to understand why friends, neighbors and work colleagues voted for Trump. In part, it was about jobs that won’t be back the way we knew them, regardless of campaign promises.

~ An edited version of this post first ran in the Cedar Rapids Gazette Feb. 1, 2017

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Home Life

Reading Books Again

Morning Reading for $1.25
Morning Reading for $1.25

Most of my reading has been on line since September, but no more.

Instead of picking up my mobile device when I wake, I read at least 25 pages in a book.

It is a positive development, born of new habits, in the land of apparent madness Iowa has become since the general election.

I’m reading articles on paper as well. A tall stack of newsletters and magazines rests on the cocktail table next to the couch. I know many of the authors who write for Via Pacis, The Prairie Progressive, Voices for Creative Nonviolence, Veterans for Peace, The Sower, Humanities Iowa, The Iowa Policy Project, and others.

Brian Terrell reported on his recent trip to Russia. Kathy Kelly about her work in Afghanistan. Frank Cordaro reported on activities at the Des Moines Catholic Worker. Jessica Reznicek wrote an article from the Sarpy County Jail in Papillion, Neb. explaining why she vandalized the Northrup Grumman property in Bellevue, Neb., home of the STRATCOM. Veterans for Peace chapter reports from around the country laid out a broad veterans agenda exposing the true costs of war and militarism. Mike Owen, Trish Nelson, Jeff Cox, Nate Willems, and many others offered insights enhanced by our history together. Newsletter writing provides a perspective unavailable in corporate news outlets. I welcome it and want more.

It was impossible to resist being drawn into the social media drama around the president’s executive orders, proclamations and memoranda during his first week in office. 45 has gotten the attention of almost everyone I know, engaging new people in the political process. To be fluent in society one has to read related documents as well. Some say I was grumpy last week. Maybe I was. Reading and learning is the best defense against excessive grumpiness.

So many people I know feel overwhelmed by the Republican takeover of state and federal government. To deal with the aftermath of the election I read — an hour or two each day — from words printed on paper.

There are few other things so helpful in sustaining a life in a turbulent world.

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Living in Society Work Life

Out of the Fog

Saturday Fog
Saturday Fog

Last Saturday began with a car trip through fog to visit Mother.

Rising from the Cedar River Valley at reduced speed, when I hit Walcott the sun came out.

It was clear this morning. Geese honked overhead, flying to open water where they landed.

The weather is warm and weird. It’s human nature to leverage what we have, so I’ll be working outside part of today and tomorrow.

A week into the new administration things are a bit foggy. Either 45 and his team don’t know what they are doing, or they are doing it so well no one can keep up with him. (It’s the former).

Good news is the sun will eventually burn off the clouds coming from Washington, D.C. enabling us to establish how we best mitigate the damage done by the billionaire in the White House and his associates.

45’s focus will be on jobs because that’s what got people to set aside what they abhorred and vote for him. Jobs was the main topic of his first weekly address.

On Friday the White House announced a manufacturing jobs initiative that includes many companies who took advantage of the Ronald Reagan years to restructure, reduce costs, and outsource jobs in a way that created what 45 described as “American carnage.” He feebly tried to pin the loss of manufacturing jobs on President Obama, whose financial recovery after the 2008 recession has been competent, but not stellar. For those of us who’ve worked for or with some of these companies, it’s a joke to think they have well-paying American jobs at heart when they are the co-creators of the decimation to which 45 referred.

The list includes U.S. Steel and Nucor Steel. The latter benefited from the high costs of the former and took market share with technology that replaced workers. I’ve been to the former U.S. Steel Works in Fairless Hills, Penn., Cleveland, Ohio, and Chicago, Ill. I’ve also been to Nucor plants in Tennessee. It is as if these two companies were predators whose sole purpose was to wreak havoc on union steel jobs. Notably missing from the list are the international steel companies ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and others that each in its own way contributed to the downfall of U.S. steel companies. ArcelorMittal is the poster child for globalization and its impact on workers. In terms of the initiative’s potential effectiveness, it’s notable that Lakshmi Mittal is absent from the list.

General Electric, Whirlpool and others were participants in the great post-Reagan restructuring of the American workforce. All of the companies on the list, with the exception of two token AFL-CIO representatives, are very large companies. What I expect is corporate leaders will reach consensus about what they need, present it to 45, who will work with the Congress to improve the environment for manufacturing within our borders. Ideas related to reducing environmental regulations, the government picking up cleanup costs, tort reform and removing what little power remains in the private sector unions will be de rigueur.

Job creation is the Achilles heel for 45 because so much of his victory was based on the promise of increased American jobs — manufacturing jobs particularly. It seems doubtful he can pull it off in a sustainable way.

This is one area of the new administration we should follow closely.

Categories
Living in Society

Information Suppression Definitely

Trumpworld
Trumpworld

I’ve been sleeping soundly since the 45th President of the United States was inaugurated Jan. 20.

It’s not for reassurances from the new administration chosen by millions of Americans. Quite the opposite.

The stress I felt after the election got to be unbearable, stymieing almost every activity.

Resolution came from talking with scores of people I know, sometimes about the election and sometimes not. Family, close friends, co-workers, and neighbors were all engaged. Today, normal sleep patterns have returned enabling strength in coming weeks and months.

The roll-out of 45’s agenda has been predictable and steady. It seems similar to 43, especially with the efforts to control communications between the federal government and the public. Whether or not the White House will censor and alter information presented by key administration officials is an open issue. It is one thing to take down web sites and social media accounts, and quite another to censor what is said by administration officials going forward.

I attended a public health conference in Columbus, Ohio after the Bush administration where Dr. Julie Gerberding, 43’s former Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, explained the process required to give a public speech about her department’s work. The text of the speech was to be reviewed by the White House communications office, she said, which exercised editorial rights to make sure it was consistent with administration messaging. Dr. Gerberding disagreed with some edits, expressing dissatisfaction with the process. She remained loyal to the president until asked to resign effective Jan. 20, 2009 when Barack Obama was inaugurated.

In 2007, Al Gore published The Assault on Reason which documents the use of information control as a political tool by the Bush administration. He details actions by the administration that seem familiar ten years later: lies and disinformation told prior to the Invasion of Iraq; ExxonMobil’s climate change pseudo-studies released in response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report; and suppression and intimidation of corporate media outlets. The book is a primer on what happened then and what to expect from the Trump administration.

Yesterday’s Associate Press interview with Douglas Ericksen is helpful in understanding 45’s approach to information control:

The Trump administration is scrutinizing studies and data published by scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency, while new work is under a “temporary hold” before it can be released.

The communications director for President Donald Trump’s transition team at EPA, Doug Ericksen, said Wednesday the review extends to all existing content on the federal agency’s website, including details of scientific evidence showing that the Earth’s climate is warming and man-made carbon emissions are to blame.

Ericksen said there was no mandate to subject studies or data (at EPA) to political review, according to Associated Press. So the question has been asked and answered. In the shifting sands of Trumpworld, there is no assurance this position will hold.

I’m not going to lose sleep over the administration’s roll out.

I agree with John Podhoretz who wrote, “If every word out of Donald Trump’s mouth is greeted with shrieks of horror and rage and anger and despair and hysteria by his opponents, they are going to find it impossible to serve as any kind of effective opposition to him.”

Oppose, we must. So I am coping with 45 by relieving stress and sleeping better. It’s all part of sustaininability in a turbulent world.

Categories
Living in Society Work Life

Bait and Switch Over Manufacturing Jobs

Palm Oil Extraction Photo Credit Wikimedia Commons
Palm Oil Extraction Photo Credit Wikimedia Commons

Since the general election I’ve been laying low, listening to people talk about the new administration and what President Donald J. Trump means to them.

Most supporters found a lot of what the president said and stands for to be objectionable, but voted for him because of the hope for jobs — a central campaign theme. Manufacturing jobs specifically. The kind with which I am very familiar.

On an issue page of the White House web page the administration laid it out:

Since the recession of 2008, American workers and businesses have suffered through the slowest economic recovery since World War II. The U.S. lost nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs during this period, while the share of Americans in the work force plummeted to lows not seen since the 1970s, the national debt doubled, and middle class got smaller. To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth.

As a deal-maker, 45 asserts he knows how to do it. His plan is not public so it’s impossible to evaluate it.

The metrics to evaluate 45’s proposal against what happens already exist in the Labor Department jobs report which shows the millions of jobs created during the Obama administration. Fill out the chart as time passes and new results are in, and there is an objective basis on which to evaluate performance. That is, assuming the methods of calculating jobs growth remain constant. A similar metric holds true for measuring economic growth. We should have a solid couple years in before the 2020 campaign begins. Thumbs up or thumbs down. It should be that simple.

I’ve worked several manufacturing jobs during my life and as a director of a logistics company that evaluated countless others. While living in Indiana I interviewed more than 10,000 people impacted by the exodus of jobs in the rust belt which produced what 45 described as the “American carnage” in his inaugural address. This is my turf, although it was during the Reagan administration, not the Obama administration the web site references.

45’s discussion of bringing manufacturing jobs “back” is a bait and switch. Globalization of the manufacturing process and automation that includes robots doing repetitive tasks has eliminated many manufacturing jobs permanently. It will eliminate more.

Yes some went to Mexico. When Mexico got too expensive they went to China and other parts of Asia. Those jobs are gone and we can’t and don’t want to go back to manufacturing as it was.

Like it or not, with Wall Street occupying four key positions in the administration whatever jobs are created are likely to be similar to those under Obama.

Coal mining runs through my family tree.

It was unskilled labor required of the Industrial Revolution and whether my forbears had been in the United States a century before the American Revolution or had just arrived in the late 19th Century, cheap unskilled labor was needed to mine coal and men in our family did it.

Automation and changing methods of strip mining significantly reduced the number of workers required. Those jobs aren’t coming back either, especially as the cost of renewable energy continues to reach grid parity with coal, and countries like China realize the growth of coal powered electricity generation is making its people sick and look to other electricity generation means. Demand for coal is expected to wane.

I am not hopeful for resurgence in manufacturing jobs, nor was this my issue. However, 45’s posture on jobs came from the lips of every Trump voter with whom I spoke, no exceptions.

If Democrats hope to win the next presidential election we need to understand why friends, neighbors and work colleagues voted for 45. In part, it was about jobs I don’t believe will be back the way we knew them.

Categories
Living in Society

Godspeed Barack Obama

Obama at the 2006 Harkin Steak Fry
Obama at the 2006 Harkin Steak Fry

The Obama administration has been personal, beginning with meeting him in the rope line at the 2006 Harkin Steak Fry where I took this photo with my flip phone.

I haven’t agreed with him on some issues, particularly with his prosecution of our ongoing wars and expansion of spending on the nuclear complex. In the end, he is a Democrat and so am I. We share more values than I probably realize.

People have oddly moved on from the fact he wouldn’t name the successor to Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. This blocking play was a legitimate use of power that created injustice not only for President Obama but for us all.

Godspeed Barack Obama. Thank you for your work. We expect more great things from you during the coming years.

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Home Life Living in Society

Lingering Holidays

1970s To-Do List
Bound 1970s To-Do Lists

We decided to keep holiday decorations up until after inauguration day.

The prospect of a new administration we won’t like has us dragging our feet.

Dregs remain of the half gallon of ultra-pasteurized half and half I bought at the warehouse club for holiday cooking.

I poured another tablespoon for morning coffee.

One day I made pancakes using half and half and an old flour mixture found in a Mason jar. I made a stack with home made pear butter instead of syrup. The expiration date on the milk carton was yesterday.

Holiday cards remain in the basket, we received a call from our daughter who is starting a new job, and Saturday I plan to visit Mother in my home town. I got a haircut yesterday after work at the home, farm and auto supply store. I consulted with a friend about pruning her fruit trees. I’ll work at three farms this season. I’m cranking up a life, but the inauguration and what it represents drags enthusiasm.

Wednesday I wrote my editor:

My post about rain is scheduled for Friday at 5 a.m.

There is so much upsetting in politics this week I’m having trouble sustaining the pretense of normal. At least Obama continues to act presidential.

Bill Palmer pointed out yesterday Trump’s response to his inauguration is to put up a Jumbotron obscuring the view of the Lincoln Memorial so all can see and hear Trump. It’s a sign of the times and I don’t like it. So typical of what I expect from our narcissistic president-elect.

I couldn’t listen to all of the DeVos questioning because it was too brutal, and sad for our country. I think I liked it better when Reagan said he was going to eliminate the Department of Education rather than the idea of putting this creature of wealth and privilege in charge of it.

Then there’s the “debate” on enabling women who have had an abortion to sue their doctors. I’m going to make myself listen to the audio put up by Radio Iowa, even though I don’t want to. Not now, though. Maybe the weekend.

Sorry to be such a downer this morning, but if there is hope, it comes from knowing we did the right thing by electing Barack Obama president.

And so it goes Kurt Vonnegut famously said.

The half and half may last until the weekend when it will be time to put away decorations and embrace new life during the post-Obama reality. The best treatment is to get busy with work worth our time and energy. Read books, write articles, and plan the garden. Such activities serve as fit occupations until the meaning of the next four political years is revealed.

I won’t believe what the D.C. Jumbotrons will present and neither should any of us as we struggle against political winds.

Such struggle defines our character even though we already know who we are.

Categories
Living in Society Work Life

Fair Share Ten Years Later

email-iconFrom:       Paul Deaton
Sent:         Monday, Jan. 15, 2007 7:13 PM
To:            Rod Sullivan
Subject:   RE: Sullivan’s Salvos

Rod:

I like your analysis of Fair Share, but I see some problems, and offer some friendly comments.

I have been on just about every side of the union issue, beginning with my membership in what was then called the Amalgamated Meat Cutters and Butcher Workmen of North America in 1971 (where I hold a retirement card). I worked at the University of Iowa while AFSCME unsuccessfully tried to organize us in the early ’80s, and supervised groups of teamsters from Local 238 in Cedar Rapids, and Local 142 in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia I negotiated the contract with the local BM. My mechanics signed cards when I ran a trucking terminal near Chicago, and ultimately decided the teamsters union was not for them. Based on this experience, I know a bit about unions.

When you mentioned Chris Rants was against Fair Share, my reaction is to support it. I see some problems with the Fair Share approach, though.

When employees agree to enable a third party to represent them, that is their decision. To be successful, a union has to provide value. I think it would be kidding ourselves to say the union could only represent its dues paying members. How would this be administered? Could another group of employees, dissatisfied with union A organize with union B because union A wasn’t serving their needs? Maybe, but that would not be good for employees, and I think that may be preempted by union A having a contract. In order to be successful with a third party negotiating for them, employees need to be together on issues, including belonging to the union and paying dues.

I don’t think you want a menu option for employees either, for the same reason. If I know that I can buy a union service, cafeteria style, then I believe many employees would choose that option as cheaper than paying dues, hoping they don’t need the services. I find this to be the case with young people who work with me now. They don’t pay the co-pay on health insurance hoping they won’t need it. Again employees need to be together on issues to make an effective bargaining unit.

Fair Share seems to assume at some level that people can’t get together on issues. That is increasingly true if we encourage diversity in the workforce. To the extent a union does not represent the needs and wants of employees, it becomes ineffective. I would make the case that Fair Share, while its cause may be justifiable, actually may be against the core principle of organized labor, that is joining together for a common cause. I don’t believe unions want to be in the business of fee for services.

I hope you find these comments of interest, and I hope you are staying warm now that winter is finally here.

Regards, Paul

Categories
Living in Society

Coping with 45

Oklahoma Attorney General and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator nominee Scott Pruitt meets with Iowa Senator Joni Ernst in her office.
Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt meets with Iowa Senator Joni Ernst in her office. Photo source: Radio Iowa

Coping with Donald Trump during the next four years will require critical thinking and teamwork.

Our legitimate yet imperfect electoral process took the next step yesterday. A joint session of the U.S. Congress counted the electoral votes and determined Trump won the general election. All that remains is the Jan. 20 swearing-in ceremony, after which he will be the 45th President of the United States.

I would never have predicted writing such words. I still feel a little numb after the election and that’s a good thing. Our nation survived Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush. We will survive Donald J. Trump.

If I got upset last week, it was after seeing this photograph of Trump’s nominee to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency with Iowa’s junior U.S. Senator. It served as a reminder that the figurehead at the top of the administration is less important than the work being done by his employees and appointees. Scott Pruitt is expected to dismantle much of the Obama administration’s work to protect the environment at EPA, including the Clean Power Plan.

As ridiculous and petty as many of Trump’s public statements seem, his government will be no trivial threat to everything we hold dear. It’s clear where the government will be going under 45: rolling back progressive initiatives since the New Deal in a full court press.

To cope with Trump’s presidency, and to keep my sanity and mental health, it is critical to watch, listen and learn about his and his minions’ efforts. It is equally important to evaluate his opponents’ arguments and actions, and keep my own powder dry so I’m able to use my limited resources effectively.

I’m ready to take action to defend our progressive way of life. I’m not willing to randomly select points of outrage driven by Trump’s effective management of corporate media.

The key to perseverance in Trumpworld is to first take care of oneself. Without that, effectiveness in resistance would be diminished. I am ready for Trumpworld knowing I’m not alone in feeling this way.

Categories
Living in Society

Welcome 115th Congress

Trumpworld
Trumpworld

At noon today the 115th Congress will be sworn in.

Overnight House Republicans voted to hobble the independent Office of Congressional Ethics in the name of due process for members and their staff suspected of criminal or unethical behavior.

Seeming to have forgotten high-profile cases that led to the creation of the office in 2008, the move seems brazen, craven, even traitorous. That the action was taken in the middle of the night without any Democrats present provides the flavor of what’s to come during the next two years.

The first order of business in the 115th Congress is expected to be repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, something House Republicans have voted to do scores of times since the bill became law. Members favoring the move appear to have no clue what to do about the political blow back such an action is expected to bring.

On Friday, Jan. 20, President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president but Trumpworld has already begun.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Later in the day, House Republicans abandoned proposed changes to the OCE. Media reports indicate there was a blizzard of negative public reaction directed at congressional offices once the secret meeting became public. Two positive things about this: the news media reported the story quickly, and public reaction was evidence that contacting one’s representative can move the needle on such egregious actions.