Category: Living in Society

Clear Lake, where the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding was held Friday, was an impossible venue for most Iowa working people.

Over 160 miles away in my case, driving there after work was not an option. To make up for the distance, I viewed the Des Moines Register webcast on my desktop. It wasn’t the same as being there, but it felt close in the twitterverse.

A key question for the Feb. 1 caucuses is who will show up, and this year one expects a significant number—not as many as in 2008—will not be activists. The campaigns will be judged by how well they organize and turn out their supporters that night. A failure to bring new people to the caucus process could be fatal for a candidate’s hopes. One of two tickets out of Iowa will go to Hillary Clinton.

Here are five take-aways from the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding.

What not to like about Martin O’Malley? Whether O’Malley can challenge Sanders for the second ticket out of Iowa is uncertain, but he is campaigning in a personal, energetic and personable way. He has had multiple bites at the policy-setting apple, and long time political activists, as well as quadrennial Democrats, can find a lot to like about O’Malley’s ideas and campaign tactics.

The Democratic political establishment is overly reliant on resources the eventual nominee will bring to the table. While Trump and Carson stage circus-like extravaganzas that bring new people into the political process, Democrats place stock in large, formal events like the Wing Ding which target existing political activists. Such events have a role. The better question is what are Democrats doing to bring new people into the process? Prove me wrong, but they aren’t doing much except dusting off the same old sawhorses for the post-caucus campaign. Is anyone else tired of hearing the name Jerry Crawford?

Bernie Sanders’ stump speech is getting old. Progressives are supportive of Sanders’ ideas, but the message is little changed since he appeared in Johnson County to support Bruce Braley before the midterm election. Maybe the idea of political revolution doesn’t need to change. His speech at the Wing Ding wasn’t helped by the fact he was losing his voice. The ideas remained strong, but delivery suffered. The novelty of Sanders is wearing off.

Chafee is actually a Democrat. If there is any question about Chafee’s allegiance to mainstream Democratic ideas, he inoculated the political bloodstream with his better than expected Wing Ding speech.

Hillary Clinton gets a ticket out of Iowa but her challenges lie ahead. In case you missed it, Hillary Clinton is a woman. Set aside all the policy ideas you agree or disagree with—your niggling objections—and it is much less than a sure thing the electorate will support a woman for president in the general election.

We live in a culture where women are considered to be second class citizens and worse. No one knows this better or has done more about it in public life than Hillary Clinton. She has done a lot globally to support women and girls, but the battle is not won. Far from it. Despite her impressive credentials, for reasons that include her gender, Hillary gets short shrift. Like many women, she will have to work smarter and twice as hard as the others to achieve her goals. The glass ceiling isn’t broken yet.

By Labor Day, most Democratic activists—people who invest time and resources into political campaigns—will have decided for whom they will caucus. Many already know or have signed up for a campaign. Some wear their preference on a T-shirt or car bumper. Others keep close counsel. The veil—already wearing thin—will be shed in a few weeks.

There is a desultory feel to this year’s caucus season, which began April 10 in Des Moines with speeches by Jim Webb and Martin O’Malley. Some show enthusiasm for their chosen candidate, yet most people I encounter are tuned out of politics. With each election the life cycle of interest in voting seems shorter.

As Iowans seek relief from summer’s heat and humidity we have had a chance to get to know the five Democratic contenders. Deciding which one to support will be easier because of Iowa’s first in the nation status. What everyday Iowans do about it is an open question.

~ Written for Blog for Iowa

After re-reading my post “5 Reasons Jim Webb’s Stock is Up” I stand by what I wrote.

For a blog post it holds up reasonably well.

At the same time, tick-tock for #WebbNation in Iowa.

Two weeks later and three weeks until Labor Day, I don’t see the Webb ground game in action, except occasional emails, list-serve messages, and social media posts. Joe Stanley is working, and posts about activities occasionally in social media. Webb has a small number of Iowa events planned. If there is more, it’s invisible.

“There is a lot of work for him to do before Labor Day to catch up with Clinton and Sanders,” I wrote, believing the campaign would make progress. “It’s going to take more than Joe Stanley’s happy face to develop and execute a Webb ground game.”

I’m not the only one who noticed Stanley. On Tuesday Rachel Weiner of the Washington Post tracked me down for a discussion and quoted me in a blog post she wrote.

Stanley was quick to respond on Twitter and proceeded to protect his tweets, as Weiner reported. What gives?

Hillary and her staff know the game, having been through it before. Bernie Sanders’ campaign experienced rapid growth pains, but now also knows the drill. Martin O’Malley seems disciplined and personable, and the first time I attended one of his events, he had caucus commitment cards available and ready to sign. This is what Iowa Democrats expect of presidential candidates. Identification of and turning out your people caucus night is what provides a ticket out of Iowa.

If Webb is playing strategy close to the vest, what could it be if it doesn’t include the block and tackling typical of winning Iowa’s Democratic caucuses? One expects a canvasser from #WebbNation would have called or reached out by now, something the Clinton, Sanders and O’Malley campaigns have already done, multiple times.

There aren’t many other paths for #WebbNation.

There are a lot of veterans in Iowa—enough to win the caucus outright if a candidate can unite enough of them behind him or her. Veterans represent a natural Webb constituency, and a list of Iowa Democratic veterans exists. Webb should be working it. But is he?

Jim Webb ≠Joe Stanley, as Stanley tweeted yesterday. They have known each other and campaigned together for a long time. Stanley is one of the faces of #WebbNation and his antics on social media serve as a distraction from what else Webb may be doing to ID caucus supporters.

Whatever that may or may not be, there is very little evidence of a Webb ground game in Iowa. High profile events like the Des Moines Register Soap Box at the state fair, and the stock and trade of county fair and central committee meetings, yes. But not the political grunt work needed to organize for a candidate in Iowa.

“How different has this time been with the Internet?” emailed a friend from a past campaign yesterday. “I feel like everyone is mini-stalking people in Iowa through Twitter.”

The Internet serves a weird function this cycle, making for laziness among reporters anxious to generate clicks. Yes, some stalking is going on, but to win the caucuses actual people need to show up at a specific time and place. Making that happen takes work that lies outside the Internet.

The clock is ticking until Labor Day when the next phase of the canvass begins: a mad rush to end of year holidays, the new year and closing the deal with Democratic caucus goers.

I like Jim Webb and would like to see him win delegates to the state convention. The question is whether the campaign will emerge from the special ops mode it is in and organize. Today it is an open question and there is time, but not much time, to make it happen.

~ Written for Blog for Iowa