Tag: politics

Setting aside Thursday’s dozens of requests to help canvass, donate and generally do my part to help Democrats before Tuesday’s midterm election, I tuned into CSPAN to listen to part of the 45th president’s speech in Sioux City. Oh My God!

He doesn’t drink alcohol, yet his speech was slurred and difficult to understand. Perhaps he is on medication. He claimed to have teleprompters yet the stream of consciousness patter was more than a person could take for long. I listened for fifteen minutes then turned it off.

Promoters had trouble getting rid of all the tickets, according to news sources. There were no crowd shots on CSPAN yet the bleachers behind the speaker were not filled to capacity. The participants seemed restless, which distracted from the speech. Preparing for the camera view is basic event organizing, so event execution was not the best.

Republican Party of Iowa chair Jeff Kaufmann opened the event. His voice was hoarse from public speaking and difficult to understand. He welcomed the ex-president with enthusiasm and denounced news media outlets with opinion sections. He has changed since I met him in 2011. We used to be able to have reasonable conversations, but I don’t know in the post-Trump era. On hand for the event were Iowa governor Kim Reynolds, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, businessman Mike Lindell and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, along with other Republicans. Like all CSPAN videos, this one is archived online.

One had to be deep into Republican culture to understand some of the speech. I picked up the Hunter Biden laptop reference which is totemic in their culture. Much of what I heard was an airing of grievances by someone whose post-presidency period has turned him into the complainer in chief of the Republican Party.

Many of us believe the 2022 midterm election will determine the fate of our democracy now and for years to come. Based on yesterday’s rally, things could turn fascist if Republicans win majorities in the U.S. Congress. Radio commentator Thom Hartmann had some thoughts about this.

“American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the United States refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election,” President Biden told the nation (on Wednesday). “He refuses to accept the will of the people, he refuses to accept the fact that he lost.”

I wrote about this six months ago, and it’s time to talk again about what an American fascist government would look like. Because over the next two weeks we may — depending on how these elections turn out and how Trump’s followers react to the outcomes — very rapidly slide into a state-by-state form of fascism much like the old Confederacy.

Like the old Confederacy, it will feature political violence and threats of violence, rigged elections, and single-party rule combined with a corrupt oligarchy that finances the politicians.

And, just like the old Confederacy, it will reach out and try to destroy the historic democracy of the United States of America, only this time in 2024 and the two years leading up to it.

The word “fascism” gets thrown around a lot, but most Americans have no idea what it would look like or how it would actually play out.

[…]

First, and essential to American fascism, Republicans envision a strong-man Leader who will hold power for as long as he (it’s almost always a “he”) chooses, with the transition to the next Leader determined by The Leader himself.

Email Newsletter from Thom Hartmann, Nov. 3, 2022.

Despite the unsettling nature of the speech and the common refrains about fascism in the United States, I slept through last night. If we are turning into a fascist country, self-care will be important to our survival. I’m going to do something on the last weekend to help Democrats win races on Tuesday. I don’t relish the inclement weather forecast, yet I expect to spend some time in it. A lot depends on our participation this weekend.

Requests to vote by mail in the Nov. 8 election declined by 39 percent over 2018, the last midterm election. Republicans have successfully suppressed early voting by mail in Johnson County. Democrats are advising people to vote early in person if they have to, instead of risking the uncertainties of the United States Postal Service. An average 836 voters per day are voting early at the county administration building. With 14 days left, it seems unlikely early voting, especially in Big Grove precinct, will reach the level of 2018. It’s still early, yet if that holds true, it will be problematic for Democrats who are already in the minority in our House and Senate districts.

We cast our ballots at the administration building yesterday after returning from Des Moines. I’ll walk in the university homecoming parade on Friday with Mike Franken who is in the county most of the day. I’m door knocking with Kevin Kinney’s campaign this weekend. I sent in my last letters to newspaper editors for this cycle. I volunteered to be a Democratic poll watcher and the training is next week. In 2020 Republicans sent no poll watcher to our precinct even though most of their voters cast a ballot on election day. I don’t expect any trouble, yet there are stories of voter intimidation. These are the last days of the campaign and it feels a bit eerie, like we are not yet over the pandemic.

The first batch of results from the new Iowa Poll are in. Retired Admiral Michael Franken has closed the distance between him and incumbent U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley to within the margin of error, 43-46 percent.

“It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. which conducted the poll, to the Des Moines Register.

The race is closer than any Grassley faced since he was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1980. The difference may be in so-called independent voters turning away from Grassley toward Franken.

Active voter registrations in Iowa were 1,867,161 on Oct. 3. Of these, 596,776 were Democratic, 684,800 were Republican, and 570,789 were No Party (independent), along with 14,796 others. A candidate must do well with No Party voters to win Iowa elections. In July, No Party voters were evenly split between the candidates. In the new Iowa Poll, they favor Franken by 46 to 35 percent or 11 points. The movement is substantial and important. If no party voters continue to break for Franken, Grassley’s long tenure in the U.S. Senate could be coming to an end.

The race leans Republican as we enter the final three weeks before the Nov. 8 election, with early voting starting on Wednesday, Oct. 19. A lot can happen in three weeks.

As the results of the Iowa Poll trickle out over the coming days, political activists will decide how to spend the remaining time before the election. Since the coordinated campaign was eliminated this cycle, Franken has his own operation, tactics and processes to chase and identify voters. To align with Franken now is to spend less time working on other campaigns. Yet, a race this close is encouragement enough to work to get Michael Franken over the finish line.

The Des Moines Register announced the first installment of their annual pre-election Iowa Poll will be released at 6 p.m. on Saturday. The poll is by Selzer & Co., and is usually an accurate predictor of the results of the general election. They will begin with online release of the polling results for the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Mike Franken. Grassley is expected to lead in the poll. The question is by how much.

Hands down, the main issue among voters this cycle is the economy. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index reported year-over-year the index rose by 8.2 percent, which number is typically used as the rate of inflation. President Joe Biden said in a statement, “Today’s report shows some progress in the fight against higher prices, even as we have more work to do. Inflation over the last three months has averaged 2 percent, at an annualized rate. That’s down from 11 percent in the prior quarter.”

Because of a higher CPI, Social Security benefits recipients will get an 8.7 percent increase in 2023. This takes the sting out of inflation for pensioners, which in Iowa are 17.7 percent of the population according to the 2020 U.S. Census.

The unknown this cycle is how overturning Roe vs Wade in the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision will impact the election. There are reports of more women registering to vote, and they are expected to turn out. How they will vote is another question, except that Iowans will be Iowans with an expectation new voters will follow their party. That is, unless Dobbs changed their minds.

I’m not sure yet don’t believe women will discuss reproductive rights honestly with an anonymous pollster. The issue will be a jump ball in Iowa and elsewhere. Getting church-goers to register to vote and support anti-abortion candidates was a key characteristic of the 2016 Iowa elections when Senator Ted Cruz won the Republican caucus and Donald Trump won the state by significant margins in both 2016 and 2020. More women registering to vote could mean more support for a statewide abortion ban.

The Democratic ground game is not going as well as I had hoped. The state party eliminated the coordinated campaign this cycle and as a result campaigns are reaching out to me individually because I have been active in the past. In the last 72 hours, there have been many distinct requests to volunteer in multiple ways. I can only work on one campaign at a time.

I’m a precinct captain and that carries some unique requirements as well. In a coordinated campaign Democrats would all pull in a single direction, as much as we ever do. That’s not what’s going on now with campaigns competing for a limited pool of experienced canvassers.

A caller on Thursday asked me to join in door knocking this coming Saturday in North Liberty. I asked how they were approaching my precinct and the other eight rural precincts in House District 91. They had no answer. That leads me to use what information I have to canvass my own precinct apart from the county party effort. In the end, what happens close to home matters as much as the broader statewide and national results. I hope to stanch the changeover to being a solidly Republican precinct. The 2022 midterms may be my last chance.

Before the big poll I don’t see how Democrats will win any statewide races. At the same time, I’m hopeful Mike Franken will win as U.S. Senator. The Iowa Poll will show the way. I’m also hoping to elect a few Democrats locally, the ones who have the wherewithal to find enough no-preference and Republican voters to vote for them and overcome the Republican advantage. I’m not sure the Iowa Poll is relevant to that. I’ll be clicking on the link to the poll shortly after it is posted.

At the Oct. 6 U.S. Senate debate, each candidate had their points. Incumbent Chuck Grassley explained his daily work schedule when Congress is in session and said he would bring more of the same if reelected. Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken brought youth, experience, and new ideas. Fans of each candidate had to find something to like.

I had more than a dozen conversations with Franken on every topic I could think of, beginning with his run in the 2020 Democratic primary. He is what he says he is. He has thoughtful, informed proposals to address many of today’s political, social, and foreign affairs problems. The smear tactics of dark money in our politics wash right off him. It is likely because he was an effective leader at the highest level of the U.S. military.

It was surprising that overturning Roe vs. Wade became an issue this election cycle. If you oppose government intervention between a woman and her doctor, and support reproductive freedom, Franken is your candidate.

I’m voting for Michael Franken Nov. 8. I hope you will too.

~ Submitted as a letter to the editor of the Des Moines Register.