Tag: politics

Jim Webb announced his campaign for president via email to supporters July 2, cross posted it on his web site and social media, then spent the Independence Day holiday weekend with family in his home state of Virginia.

When the Des Moines Register posted an article titled, “Presidential hopefuls discuss patriotism on July 4th,” the Webb campaign submitted the Marine Corps seal as his response. There was a caption referring to Webb’s combat service in Vietnam, but the seal was the submission according to the Register.

If Webb has a natural constituency, I am part of it. We share common roots in western Virginia, we both felt a duty to serve our country in the military, we both had ancestors who served on both sides of the Civil War, and we both believe the Scots-Irish heritage is an important American legacy that continues to be influential. Because his campaign is so different, I’m not sure what to make of it.

I expect to find out.

What we know is the East Coast liberal establishment has not taken to Webb as a Democratic candidate for president.

Barbara Morrill of Daily Kos had eight words for Webb, “Good luck Jim, You’re going to need it,” and posted a link to polling that showed Webb at the back of the heap at 1.2 percent, ahead of only Lincoln Chafee who was at zero.

David Corn of Mother Jones took umbrage with Webb from the git go.

Confederate flag loving Democrats who don’t want to do anything about climate change just got a candidate: Jim Webb announces he’s in.

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) July 2, 2015

Perhaps the most favorable East Coast establishment liberal article came from Alex Seitz-Wald of MSNBC, who wrote,

The former senator, author, decorated Marine combat veteran and Navy secretary is a true maverick. He’s a rebel who refuses to play by Washington’s rules, and he has excited some liberals with his anti-conformist ethos.

Webb’s refusal to play by the rules, and his willingness to break with convention, is considered refreshing in an age of deep dissatisfaction with politics. But it also means he often ends up alone, as when he defended the Confederate flag after the shooting massacre last month at a historically black church in Charleston, South Carolina.

By throwing out the political playbook and letting seven months pass by without building a real campaign infrastructure, Webb went from being the first potential candidate to declare an exploratory committee to being the 15th candidate to officially enter the race.

And his ideological heterodoxy and refusal to comport to anybody’s doctrine makes it unclear where he stands in a Democratic field that has so far broken down cleanly along ideological lines.

In a canvass of likely caucus-goers in the Peoples Republic of Johnson County over the last few days, I found a lot of people have established camp with a candidate. By that reckoning, Webb’s delay, from last November when he formed his exploratory committee to his announcement, cost him support in this and probably other liberal centers of the state.

Webb 2016 has a steep climb to get a share of Johnson County delegates, but it may not matter much. Johnson County is an island in a sea of disgruntled Iowa voters and that’s where Webb’s opportunity to pick up delegates may be.

Among Iowa Democrats, delegates matter most in the caucuses, and the smart money is on activating people so as to maximize delegate count. Webb could target historically neglected and disaffected Democrats, including those in conservative areas, as a tactic to garner delegates. There may be a winning path, but at this point, who knows what Webb has in mind for strategy and tactics given his close to the breast style?

I spoke to both Joe Stanley, Webb’s Iowa campaign coordinator, and Craig Crawford, his communications director in Clinton June 26. Both Stanley and Crawford are long-time friends of Webb. Crawford summed up the situation, “We will need people, lots of people.”

Webb surrounded himself with people he can trust for the campaign, but in Clinton, the focus was on whether, when and where to announce. In the audience were cousins from Cedar Rapids, and three former Marines, including at least one who was in his Vietnam combat unit.

Fox news is the only media outlet quoting an unnamed source saying Webb planned to announce his bid for the presidency at the Clinton County Democrats Hall of Fame Dinner. For those who understand Iowa Democratic politics, that makes no sense. Even if it were true, county party chair Jean Pardee’s reading a letter from Bernie Sanders to those gathered, and Senator Amy Klobuchar devoting half her 23 minute speech to advocating for Hillary Clinton were both very predictable at a high visibility county party event.

Where does that leave Webb 2016? His campaign tag line is “Leadership You Can Trust.” One has to believe he’s serious about running, given his personal character. From here the path leads to gaining enough trust among Democratic caucus-goers and primary voters to win some early states. If the liberal establishment has been dismissive of Webb’s campaign, he may be relying on family, friends, veterans and an extensive personal network to secure the nomination. It should be engaging to see how he expands his network and gains trust, and if that’s possible.

Webb’s campaign strikes me as pure Appalachia. To understand him we may need to get back to his roots, and keep on the sunny side.

~ Written for Blog for Iowa

The energy and excitement of Hillary Clinton’s Iowa organizers is very high. On a scale of 1-10, it’s a 16.

In May I met with Clinton campaign organizer Janice Rottenberg at the North Dodge Hy-Vee in Iowa City. She was busy on a conference call when I arrived ten minutes early.

Her handshake was firm, her voice confident, her manner enthusiastic. Rottenberg is an experienced political activist who demonstrated ownership in the Clinton campaign. From past campaigns I recognize one or two others like her in Clinton 2016. Between those I know personally and those I know through social media, they are sunlight diamonds who put on their wings to engage in politics. They seem to like the work very much.

If people like Rottenberg are the face of the Clinton campaign, Hillary will be hard to beat in the Iowa caucuses. They represent the polar opposite of what Iowa Democrats had become, bringing a positive, youthful energy to what otherwise have been desultory meetings among aging party operatives. They bring the party with them, and in doing so have the potential to elevate the Iowa Democratic Party.

If one doesn’t know where Hillary Clinton stands on an issue, the problem is likely with that person. For goodness sake, she has been around so long, and everywhere in the media. She has been part of the public conversation on a wide range of issues since the 1996 publication of her book, It Takes a Village.

That may be the flaw in the Clinton campaign: people feel they know her too well. In Iowa we like to survey the whole field before caucusing for someone, and while we know Hillary, we are also curious about the others.

It was with some regret I told Janice that Hillary was my second choice. I’m confident she entered that in a database soon afterward, probably before she left Hy-Vee.

As I returned to my car to drive the nine miles home, I thought about how my views on political campaigns had changed, and about the Golden Road (To Unlimited Devotion).

Hey hey, hey, come right away,
Come and join the party every day;
Hey hey, hey, come right away,
Come and join the party every day.

~ Written for Blog for Iowa

CLINTON—Every parking spot at Gil’s Restaurant, Ballroom and Limousine Service was filled, so latecomers had to park on the grass next to the road leading to the Clinton County Democrats Hall of Fame Dinner on Friday.

A few Jim Webb ’16 signs marked the way. The one term Virginia senator, author and Vietnam combat veteran was keynote speaker. His staff had been in town for a couple of days helping Jean Pardee, county chair, and the local Democrats make final preparations. Pardee characterized turnout as “good,” and the room was filled.

A satellite remote truck was parked near the building, indicating national interest in what would normally have been, except for the February 2016 Iowa caucuses, a nondescript annual political event. As I approached, I took off my name tag from the warehouse and put it in my pocket.

The Webb campaign had paid for my ticket after I introduced myself to Iowa organizer Joe Stanley via twitter. The campaign is not well known in Iowa outside political activists. That afternoon I ran into a former chair of the Johnson County Democrats, and he knew my alignment with Webb from previous conversations. He wasn’t hearing much about the campaign either.

During a brief chat with Craig Crawford, Webb 2016 communications director, near the bar, he summed up the situation, “We need people, lots of people.”

Webb surrounded himself with people he can trust for the campaign. Both Stanley and Crawford are long-time friends. In the audience were cousins from Cedar Rapids, and three former Marines, including at least one who was in his Vietnam combat unit.

I don’t think Webb expected Iowa politics to be what it is. A day or so before the event, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn) was scheduled as a speaker. She spent half of her speech advocating for Hillary Clinton. Too, Pardee read a letter from Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) who was unable to attend. There was no O’Malley or Chafee presence at the event. Despite the friendly competition, Webb had a chance to get his message out both time-wise and by exposure in the run up to the event.

Second District Congressman Dave Loebsack spoke after Dr. Andy McGuire, Iowa Democratic Party chair. Some of us hear Loebsack speak so often the themes and tales are very familiar. What stood out about Loebsack’s speech was his underscoring how the next president would impact the judiciary. He or she may have an opportunity to appoint as many as four U.S. Supreme Court judges. That matters to Democrats according to Loebsack.

Six members of the local party were inducted into the Hall of Fame. Distinct from my home county, they were honored for their grassroots work to elect Democrats, and their acceptance speeches were very brief with some saying less than a dozen words. Perhaps Merlin Schmidt said the most, recounting how the first president he voted for was Harry Truman. Schmidt was glad Truman dropped the atomic bomb on Japan. He claimed his life could have been saved by this action, even though historians have debunked the idea that dropping the bomb saved lives.

The Cedar County Democrats made me an honorary member for the night and I sat with chair Larry Hodgden, treasurer Laura Twing, and U.S. Senate candidate Tom Fiegen. Our most animated conversation was about guns after I mentioned that Colt Manufacturing had filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Colt made the .45 caliber revolver I carried in the military and the M-16 on which I was an expert marksman. Their AR-15 is very popular with local militia types and loss of their military contract led to Colt’s demise. While “Second Amendment Rights” doesn’t carry the same cache among Democrats, most knew people with gun collections, including assault rifles, and it is an accepted part of Iowa life.

I left without getting “a moment” with the candidate. I had to be at work in the morning and it was more than an hour drive along the Lincoln Highway. If Webb decides he is running for president, there will be plenty of chances for that.

The towns along Highway 30 have become a part of my life. Grand Mound, Wheatland, Calamus, Lowden, Clarence, Stanwood and Mechanicsville are familiar markers on the path home. I stopped in Clarence to use a rest room and grab a beverage to quench my thirst. Unlike some, my thirst for politics can be quenched by attending an occasional political event.

Despite the odds against him, I would like to see Jim Webb run. He is supposed to decide during the next few days.

Another sign summer has arrived is the release of opinions by the United States Supreme Court as they end the current session. Yesterday they ruled on King v. Burwell, and on Texas Dept. of Housing and Community Affairs v. Inclusive Communities Project, Inc., two significant cases on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and on housing discrimination respectively. Earlier in the week SCOTUS issued rulings in City of Los Angeles v. Patel, and Kimble v. Marvel Entertainment LLC.

The supremes are just getting started and my view is to hunker down in the bunker until all of the opinions are out there.

Most of my friends are interested in the imminent ruling on Obergefell v. Hodges, which has the potential to clear the way for marriage equality in all 50 states.

Glossip v. Gross will opine as to whether lethal injection of midazolam causes cruel and unusual punishment banned by the Constitution; Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission in which Republicans want redistricting (a.k.a. gerrymandering) done by the legislature rather than by an independent commission; Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA et. al. in which coal companies and power plants challenge new EPA rules regarding mercury, nickel and arsenic; and Johnson v. U.S., in which white supremacist Samuel Johnson complains about his sentence being increased from 10 to 15 years in compliance with U.S. law. There are others.

Once all of these rulings have been released, there is a lot to consider.

Here’s the brief point of this post. The members of the Supreme Court will change over the next ten years. By birth year, the four oldest justices are Ginsburg (1933), Scalia (1936), Kennedy (1936) and Breyer (1938), and as many as all of them might retire or die during the next president’s term in office. Whoever is elected president will have a chance to remake the supreme court in a way that will have lasting implications.

That’s why the 2016 presidential election matters, and is reason to engage not only in first in the nation Iowa, but all over. This decision is a lot more important than what beverage to take to the beach or which sandals to buy as summer begins.

Conventional wisdom is there are two tickets out of Iowa after the Democratic caucuses scheduled Feb. 1, 2016—the front-runner and one other.

2008 caucus results might be used to argue there could be three, but 2016 is no 2008: two tickets is the number.

If New Hampshire ratifies the Iowa results, we will have our nominee. If the Granite State doesn’t ratify, the nominee will be decided by South Carolina. Given the current political climate, I feel very confident about this.

Democrats have five candidates who expressed interest in running for the nomination as president. Of these only three are viable—Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley and Bernie Sanders.

Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island announced for president, and Jim Webb of Virginia established an exploratory committee, but they fall victims to the honored tradition, “snooze, you lose.” Neither of them capitalized on the pent up demand for Democratic political action to fill the void created by the vast and well publicized Republican field in early 2015.

Hillary leads in the early polling. While she is neither inevitable, nor seeking a crown, she has been a part of the public discussion for so long—arguably since her 1996 book, It Takes a Village—she has name recognition and a presence in American society that creates a substantial obstacle for Democratic presidential challengers to overcome. O’Malley and Sanders are doing “the Iowa work,” garnering substantial attendance at their events. Nonetheless, it seems clear they are vying for the second ticket out of Iowa.

The question is not as much whether Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses. It is whether having three contenders will generate enough interest in partisan politics to build a coalition that can win Iowa—perhaps a swing state in the general election—and win the 2016 general election. That is the uncertainty going into caucus season. I, for one, am trying to be part how that plays out.

Both the administration of elections and the electorate have changed since Bill Clinton’s first election as president in 1992. What matters more than the outcome of the caucuses (Tom Harkin and Uncommitted got the two tickets out of Iowa that year) is the redistricting processes of 2000 and 2010 that created electoral maps which relegated decisions on national elections to a comparatively small number of swing states. There is also a flight from partisan politics, as reflected in the Iowa voter registration numbers, where no preference is a larger group than either political party.

We can support or detract from the Iowa caucuses as much as we want, but campaigns have to be more about the general election than collecting caucus cards from Democratic activists. This is an advantage to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

The Iowa Democratic Party has become reliant on national interest in the Iowa Caucuses to generate financial resources which pay for campaign offices and staff to do the party work. Prominent figures in the party have publicly said so. That’s the reason we have an interest in remaining first in the nation, and having a “competitive” caucus.

To put this into perspective, it is important to engage in politics. The most productive work we can do is talk to people we know about issues that matter. We could also debunk the myth that we are polarized, except in the non-functional congress which we have the power to change.

My take away is worry less about the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and turn our attention to winning the general election. They are related, but not the same, and that is an important distinction.