Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field in recent Iowa polling. Simply put, the remaining contenders seem unlikely to close the gap between summer’s end and the Feb. 1 caucus.
It’s possible, but unlikely, even if something new about Hillary comes up.
She has a proven ability to shed Republican faux scandals. The form they take once debunked is of distorted sound in the mostly right wing echo chamber. Rank and file Democrats aren’t listening, even if Democratic elites are. To the extent Clinton’s Democratic rivals bring them up, their campaigns are the less. Read Greg Sargent’s take on the elites here.
Media reports this week revealed “there was no policy prohibiting the use of a private email account at the State Department.” Like it or not, her State Department emails are expected to persist in the Republican lexicon, and real people will spend substantial resources working to gin up some trouble for Clinton, even though the State Department said she did nothing wrong.
Hillary’s polling in other states is not as favorable as it is in Iowa. Bernie Sanders edges her out in his backyard state of New Hampshire. If Sanders is viable in any respect, he should win New Hampshire. If he does not, it’s game over and Hillary Clinton will become the Democratic nominee
Gabriel Debenedette pointed out on Politico Hillary has the resources and more importantly boots on the ground in the Super Tuesday, March 1 states. One expects she will have the nomination wrapped up by then. According to Debenedette, she’s building a firewall there.
I hang out with an informal group of low-wage workers from time to time. One could call it a focus group, but that would be giving it more structure than probably exists.
There is pent up demand to talk about Donald Trump.
The other day someone mentioned his name and the mere mention unleashed comments from almost everyone. It was evidence of Trump’s mastery of popular culture — something that should be no surprise to anyone familiar with his long-running television program.
“Donald Trump is building his Republican presidential campaign staff in Iowa similar to his defunct NBC-TV series ‘The Apprentice’ — and his celebrity is making it easier on some fronts,” Todd Beamon pointed out on Newsmax.
What do members of the group say about Hillary?
“I don’t know if we can trust Hillary,” said one, confirming what the polls say. If Hillary is the nominee, the ones whose politics I know best will still vote for her.
Most only wanted to talk about Trump.
Labor Day will signal the end of summer and the beginning of the next political canvass for candidates working the process. The textbook method is to finish the second canvass in October when the end of year holidays are imminent.
Based on what I’m seeing in rural Iowa, the only Democrats working the process are Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley. Will Iowa Democrats caucus for a party outsider like Sanders? Will Joe Biden make it three?
I don’t know, but as summer turns to fall, Iowa has been all about Hillary Clinton.
~ Written for Blog for Iowa