People are weary of the 2016 presidential campaign.
Voting began Sept. 29 in Iowa and we can’t get to Nov. 8 quickly enough.
For the most part, decisions about who to support are made. While there have been many surprises this cycle, and might be more, not much can change minds as we move toward election day.
The strength of Clinton’s campaign is in its organizers.
I met Janice Rottenberg more than a year ago in Iowa City. Today, she’s leading the Clinton organizing effort in Ohio, where Clinton stands a 60.6 percent chance of winning 18 electoral votes.
I worked with Kate Cummings, senior program director for Florida Democrats, during the 2012 cycle, She was also in Iowa for the 2016 Iowa caucus campaign. Clinton stands a 71.2 percent chance of winning Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
Some swing state numbers are looking good for Clinton Pennsylvania 86.6 percent, Colorado 84.1 percent, North Carolina 66.7 percent, Michigan 90.0 percent, and even Republican-leaning Iowa shows her with a 55.4 percent chance of winning. Overall, Hillary Clinton stands an 83.5 percent chance of winning the electoral college with 334 votes. That Clinton tapped the best organizing talent in the country to staff her campaign is making a difference.
For his part, if Donald Trump has political organizers it’s not clear who they are or what role they play in his media based campaign. He’s running as if it were a professional wrestling promotion. The WWE hall of famer knows how to run down and dirty and would drag us all to his level if he could. If the Commission on Presidential Debates would allow it, I expect he would call for a 1960s-style professional wrestling cage match like I saw with my father at Municipal Stadium in Davenport. Trump is more a promoter like Vince McMahon than a politician.
George Will wrote this week the Republican post-campaign autopsy can likely be written Nov. 9 in one sentence, “Perhaps it is imprudent to nominate a venomous charlatan.” I’m confident a majority of Americans feel the same way.
It’s all over but the voting, and if there are some surprises, the biggest one will be that Donald Trump receives tens of millions of votes. Republicans who plan to vote for him do so with a sense of duty to their party. After all, the Republican grass roots had the candidate they voted for and feel some obligation to vote for him in the general. They own that and many of us won’t let them forget.
As for Hillary Clinton, it seems like nothing will stop her now. It’s not over, but it’s over.